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What's Next for Yoon?

Dan Mitchum

The resounding defeat of the People’s Power Party (PPP) has already begun reshaping South Korea’s political landscape as South Koreans elected both the oldest National Assembly ever while also voting in a record number of women as representatives. South Korea’s parliament is now decisively liberally aligned. Such a shift will likely result in a lame-duck while soon after the election, both Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and presidential aides and staff members offered to resign. A senior official of Yoon’s administration has stated that it will take time to find suitable replacements.

Several of Yoon’s key initiatives will be significantly harder to pass without the support of the National Assembly as Yoon’s political capital was already stretched thin before last week’s election and his key promise to implement structural reforms in labor, education, and pension will face an uphill battle. Furthermore, the PPP’s plan to merge the city of Gimpo into Seoul to create a “megacity” is likely to be halted, at least temporarily, as the victory of Korea’s Democratic Party (DP) within Gimpo was a likely reflection of the public’s disinterest in the plan.  The DP may also seek to push through initiatives previously vetoed by Yoon, such as the “yellow envelope bill” which would have offered increased legal protections to labor unions.

The opposition has also ramped up legal pressure in several key areas. Cho Kuk and his Rebuilding Korea Party, have promised to push forward with plans to investigate President Yoon’s wife, Kum Gun-hee, over corruption allegations. The DP has increased pressure to investigate the death of a marine last year. The opposition party alleges that the Yoon administration played a role in shielding ranking military members for their responsibility in the matter.  

The Causes Behind the South Korea’s 2024 General Election Results

Dohyun Im

On April 10th, South Korea’s left-leaning opposition won a decisive victory in South Korea’s 2024 General Election, as voters rebuked the People Power Party (PPP), to which President Yoon Suk Yeol belongs. The Democratic Party, the main opposition to the PPP, now holds the majority and won 175 seats in the 300-member single-chamber parliament of South Korea. The PPP took 108 seats, becoming an even smaller minority than it is now. This time, the voter turnout reached 67%, which is the highest in 32 years for a parliamentary election, according to the National Election Commission. 

The outcome is largely interpreted as a judgment on President Yoon, whose approval ratings have stayed below 40% for most of his two years in office. The low approval rate since becoming President—hovering between 30% and 40%—can be another cause of Yoon's party's loss in the election. Critics blame the President for mishandling economic issues such as rising prices, failing to cooperate with opposition leaders to address policy priorities, and refusing to replace high-level officials involved in scandals. Earlier this year, Yoon’s abysmal approval ratings deepened as the public supported him over his high-stakes push to drastically increase the number of medical students, a step his predecessors failed to achieve. However, thousands of doctors have instead decided to go on strike in protest of Yoon’s plan, leaving him with growing calls to seek a compromise.

In the weeks leading up to the election, public sentiment toward the President and the ruling party has significantly soured due to the "green onion" scandal. Yoon claimed the sale price of green onion was "reasonable" while failing to note that the actual price is around four times higher. The pain was especially felt by middle-class shoppers as in March, the prices of some agricultural products nearly doubled, with general consumer prices rising by over 3% compared to last year. The major hospitals entered emergency mode in late February as a vast number of doctors left their duties over the government's plan to expand medical school student enrollment.

Furthermore, early voting is noted as the reason for the difference between the actual results and exit polls. Under the Public Official Election Act, the three terrestrial broadcastings could not conduct the exit polls on early voting days, and voters who participate in early voting are not directly eligible to be counted in the exit poll research. As the early voting rate hit a record high of 31.28%, up 4.59% from 26.69% recorded in the latest elections, analysts argue that the failure to reflect the votes of 13.84 million people served as a limit to prediction. As the age group who participated in the early voting accounted for the most significant proportion of people in their 60s, it is interpreted that the vote share of the PPP has "rebounded." 

Opposition Party Takes Elections by a Firm Majority

Gordon Henning 

South Korea’s 22nd general elections concluded last Wednesday, April 10. There was a resounding victory for the opposing Democratic Party (DP) with the former presidential candidate, Lee Jae Myung, at the helm of the DP. The DP was able to secure 175 seats in the national assembly out of 300, while President Yoon’s conservative party, the People’s Power Party (PPP), was only able to walk away with 108. Additionally, the smaller political parties in the national assembly such as the Rebuilding Korea Party, the New Reform Party, the Saemirae Party, and the Progressive Party won 12, three, one, and one seats respectively. 

Although both the DP and PPP had very similar polling, the DP was able to retain a strong majority. The reasoning behind the PPP’s loss has mostly been attributed to public criticism and controversy regarding the doctors’ protest late last March, and a secretly recorded video of the First Lady of South Korea accepting luxury gifts such as a Dior. Conservative-leaning elections analyst, Rhee Jong-hoon, was quoted after the results stating “The public's message is loud and clear, President Yoon, you've got to change.”

The remaining three years of Yoon’s administration will almost certainly be facing headwinds vis-à-vis domestic policy, with many describing Yoon’s position as being turned into a lame duck. Despite the uphill battle domestically, Yoon’s foreign policy goals may not be affected too much. Undoubtedly, Yoon will receive pushback regarding the practicality of his stance on North Korea, but foreign policy objectives in the Yoon administration were not formulated on the back of populism as CSIS’s Victor Cha pointed out. 

This Week in Korean History

On April 14th 2009, Pyongyang withdrew from the Six Party Talks. As the talks entered their third phase, North Korea appeared receptive to a deal which would have provided the nation fuel aid and steps toward normalizing relations with the US and Japan in exchange for a shutdown of its nuclear facilities. However, after the U.N. condemned an attempted satellite launch by North Korea, Pyongyang announced it was withdrawing from the talks and resuming its enrichment of fissile materials. 

EVENTS

Beyond Utopia Screening & Discussion

Hosted by Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK)

DACOR Bacon House

1801 F Street NW

Washington, D.C.

Monday, April 22, 2024, 3:00 PM- 6:00 PM

North Korea Economic Forum: Revisiting Sanctions on North Korea (Virtual)

Hosted by GW Institute for Korean Studies

Tuesday, April 23, 2024, 9:00 AM- 10:30 AM