Wednesday, April 16, 2025

2025 Presidential Election: Key Candidates, Political Dynamics, and the Stakes Ahead

Sheewon Min

The impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol has triggered an early presidential election in South Korea, currently scheduled for June 3. The race is shaping up to be highly competitive, with major candidates emerging across the political spectrum.

Within the Democratic Party (DP), the field has largely solidified around Lee Jae-myung, who until recently served as party leader. He is being challenged by Gyeonggi Governor Kim Dong-yeon, former South Gyeongsang Governor Kim Kyoung-soo, and former lawmaker Kim Du-kwan, creating what observers call a “Lee versus the Three Kims” dynamic.

In contrast, the People Power Party (PPP) has yet to coalesce. Declared candidates include former Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo, former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon, lawmakers Ahn Cheol-soo and Na Kyung-won, and former Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo. However, key figures like Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and former lawmaker Yoo Seong-min have declined to run, reflecting a fragmented conservative field. In addition, rumors are swirling that current Acting President Han Duck-soo is considering a run, although he would do so outside the PPP according to PPP leader Kwon Seong-dong. Han’s hypothetical candidacy could significantly shake up the existing PPP landscape given that he would be running with a de facto incumbency advantage – something that is not typically possible due to the one-term limit for South Korean presidents.

Outside the two main parties, minor candidates are gaining traction. Reform Party leader Lee Jun-seok has launched his campaign, while former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon, now heading the New Future Party, is also expected to run. Both are emerging as potential anchors of a broader anti–Lee Jae-myung coalition.

A recent public opinion poll on preferred candidates for the upcoming presidential election shows Lee Jae-myung maintaining a commanding lead with 48.8% support. Kim Moon-soo placed second with 10.9%, reflecting a significant 5.4 percentage point decline from the previous week. Notably, Acting President Han Duck-soo, who has not yet officially declared his candidacy and was included in the poll for the first time, ranked third with 8.6%. He was followed by Han Dong-hoon (6.2%), Hong Joon-pyo (5.2%), Lee Jun-seok (3.0%), Yoo Seong-min (2.7%), Oh Se-hoon (2.6%), Ahn Cheol-soo (2.4%), Kim Kyoung-soo (1.3%), Kim Dong-yeon (1.2%), and Kim Du-kwan (0.9%). In terms of party support, the DP leads with 46.7%, followed by the PPP at 33.1%.

The 2025 South Korean presidential election unfolds amid significant domestic upheaval and global uncertainty, particularly with the potential return of protectionist trade policies under a second Trump administration. Beyond a change in leadership, the election’s outcome will shape South Korea’s constitutional reform, foreign policy, and institutional governance. In this context, candidates must move beyond polarization and advance policy-focused, issues-driven campaigns that are crucial for restoring public trust and preparing the nation for complex domestic and international challenges.

INDOPACOM Sounds Alarm Over Potential U.S. Troop Drawdown in South Korea

Amy Han

U.S. military leaders in the Indo-Pacific expressed concern on April 10 over the potential reduction of American troops in South Korea. At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), warned that withdrawing or downsizing U.S. forces in South Korea would significantly heighten the risk of a North Korean invasion. Paparo emphasized that removing U.S. forces from the Korean Peninsula would increase the likelihood of a North Korean invasion. He warned that reducing troop levels significantly below the current 28,000 would undermine the U.S. military’s ability to prevail in a conflict.

He also highlighted South Korea’s broader strategic value, noting that Seoul contributes meaningfully to security efforts across the Indo-Pacific region and noted the unpredictability of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s actions. “[Kim’s] intentions can shift quickly, and he has built a military capable of inflicting severe costs directly on South Korea,” Paparo said, stressing the importance of maintaining a strong deterrent posture on the Peninsula.

Similarly, Gen. Xavier Brunson, Commander of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), described the prospect of troop reductions as "problematic.” As President Donald Trump advances his “America First” policy, questions remain over whether his administration will seek to scale back overseas military commitments and push allied nations to take greater responsibility for their own security. Brunson focused on the critical role of the newly established combined operations plan, the Korea-U.S. Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), and the continued deployment of U.S. strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula in addressing North Korea’s escalating military capabilities.

During President Trump’s previous term, he demanded that former South Korean President Moon Jae-in increase South Korea’s contribution to the cost of stationing U.S. troops by 400%, leading to a prolonged delay in the defense cost-sharing negotiations. Although South Korea and the United States signed a new five-year cost-sharing agreement in October of last year, Trump has indicated the possibility of renegotiating the deal. The role of U.S. troops in South Korea is expected to remain highly critical in deterring North Korea's nuclear threats and provocations. A strong and enduring security partnership between the two nations also remains vital.

This Week in Korean History

On April 15, 1969, North Korea destroyed a U.S. EC-121 reconnaissance aircraft off the eastern coast of the Korean peninsula. In a subsequent press conference, U.S. President Nixon doubled down on U.S. military activity in the region to show resolve in the face of the incident. However, while the United States considered myriad response measures, ultimately the White House chose not to retaliate against Pyongyang.