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President Yoon’s APEC Trip 

Sophia Shum Gagnier

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol arrived in Lima, Peru on November 14 to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, on the sidelines of which he held a set of meetings with key allies and partners. During the summit, Yoon emphasized South Korea’s role as a global leader and the need to proactively respond to the growing military relationship between Russia and North Korea.

On the sidelines of the summit, Yoon joined the newly elected Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba and U.S. President Joe Biden to reaffirm their commitment to regional security. In their joint statement, the leaders highlighted their success in creating greater consultative processes, joint training exercises and the recently launched Trilateral Secretariat. The three leaders also condemned the munitions and ballistic missile transfers between North Korea and Russia and reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. A senior Biden admin official privately confirmed to reporters that the recent arrival of more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers to Ukraine in support of Russia has been a key topic of recent trilateral talks. The U.S. election, however, was not mentioned nor were any future plans aside from the hope that further collaboration will support regional security, development, and prosperity.

Yoon’s other bilateral meetings followed in a similar vein, emphasizing the need for collaboration and leadership on energy issues. In his meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the two discussed their shared investment in the Indo-Pacific, their visions for greater commercial interactions in renewable and nuclear energy, and their commitments to supporting Ukraine in the face of North Korean-Russian collaboration. Yoon pressed the case for collaboration further in his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, reportedly requesting China play a “constructive role” in promoting regional stability.

Looking ahead, with the completion of the Lima summit South Korea has formally assumed the role of APEC chair for 2025. The theme for South Korea’s term as APEC leader is “jointly building a sustainable future,” with Yoon explaining that this mantra “present[s] a blueprint for a future where the Asia-Pacific region is more closely connected, more innovative, and more prosperous.” He specifically stressed the significance of supply chain security, responsible AI technology development, and the clean energy transition.

North Korea’s International Provocations

Daniel Choi

North Korea continues to demonstrate its provocative stance on the global stage, recently gaining attention with reports of North Korean troops spotted in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine in a show of support for Moscow. International intelligence reports suggest that North Korean soldiers have been deployed to support Russia's war efforts, aiding in logistical tasks or security in Russian-occupied regions. This move aligns with the ratification of the major defense treaty with Russia and illustrates Pyongyang's support for Russia in its conflict with Ukraine.

On October 31, North Korea conducted another test of its Hwasong-19 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), showcasing its advancements in missile technology and its defiance of UN Security Council sanctions. The Hwasong-19, a solid-fuel ICBM, represents a significant step in North Korea’s missile development. North Korea said the new Hwasong-19 missile reached a maximum altitude of 4,777 miles and flew 622 miles. Solid-fueled missiles, such as North Korea’s Hwasong-18, would allow Pyongyang to launch long-range nuclear strikes quicker than with missiles that use liquid-fuel technology.

These developments highlight North Korea's growing boldness in pursuing its strategic interests through both military and geopolitical maneuvers. While international responses to North Korea’s actions have included condemnation and the formation of the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team, Pyongyang’s actions indicate its focus on strengthening its alliances and enhancing its missile capabilities, increasing tensions in Northeast Asia and beyond. The United States, South Korea, and Japan will keep a close watch on North Korea’s next steps, as the rogue state continues to assert itself onto the global stage.
 

Tariffs and Tension: South Korea’s Strategy to Navigate the next 4 Years

Raveena Ugale

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol spoke with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump following his victory in the November 5 U.S. presidential election, congratulating him and expressing his desire for continued Seoul-Washington cooperation. According to Yoon's office, the two leaders further agreed to arrange an in-person meeting at the earliest opportunity while covering areas such as security, the economy, and global issues. Additionally, South Korea sent South Korean Ambassador to the U.S. Cho Hyun-dong to Trump’s Mar-a-lago home in Florida to reaffirm the promise of a strong partnership. The swift response of the South Korean government to the U.S. election results raises important questions about how the incoming presidency will shape the U.S.-South Korea partnership over the next four years.

Trump’s “America First” foreign policy serves as a key concern for Seoul, which could see the United States withdraw from current international initiatives or organizations. Current discussions within the South Korea government focus in particular on the potential impact of tariff changes on exports and the possibility of renegotiating the U.S.-South Korea free trade agreement. In a roundtable titled “A New US Administration, Is South Korea’s Economy Ready? A Roundtable with Former Ministers for Trade,” former South Korean trade minister Yeo Han-koo said that the next Trump administration “will pursue its three main goals of reducing trade deficits, revitalizing the US manufacturing industry and securing the upper hand in the U.S.-China hegemonic competition by utilizing trade policy, such as tariffs, as a key tool to pursue its goal of putting America first.” Yeo emphasized that Trump's first-term focus on trade deficits as a benchmark for gauging U.S. economic relationships may resurface, reflecting his cost-benefit approach towards bilateral alliances. 

 The upcoming Trump administration may not only bring volatile economic impacts, but it is important to consider the impact on current security initiatives and alliance management. With Yoon’s desire to strengthen ties with Washington, previous views on the alliance partnership during the first Trump administration may prove challenging. Trump’s critique of South Korea “free-riding” on U.S. military power during his first administration may resurface, pushing additional pressure on South Korea to increase their defense budget. Amid these concerns, the United States and South Korea signed a five-year agreement in which Seoul has committed to an 8.3% increase in its contribution to the cost of maintaining U.S. bases in South Korea, raising it to KRW 1.52 trillion (USD 1.09 billion) by 2026. Despite South Korea taking on additional responsibilities to finance U.S. bases, if Trump’s cost-benefit, transactional foreign policy persists in his upcoming term, it could present a lasting challenge that South Korea will need to navigate over the next four years.

This Week in Korean History

On November 20, 1992, Russian President Boris Yeltsin made a state visit to South Korea, the first such visit by a Russian leader following the fall of the Soviet Union. Reflecting the vastly different circumstances facing the fledgling Russian Federation compared to the current regime of Vladimir Putin, Yeltsin’s approach to Seoul was conciliatory, cooperative, and open. During the trip, he urged North Korea to accept nuclear inspections from international regulators, suggested that Russia would prioritize the peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula, and offered to drastically reduce Russia’s military presence in Asia.